The Law of Unintended Consequences in Epidemiology

One goal of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is to predict the outcome of an epidemic and to simulate the effect of various intervention measures: vaccination, treatment or quarantine. In some cases, these measures can cause detrimental side effects that diminish or even counteract their intended purpose: the reduction and/or the eradication of the disease. 

In this presentation I will describe the basic concepts of epidemic modeling followed by several scenarios in which vaccination and treatment lead to risk compensation with detrimental effects in the evolution of the epidemic.